Here's a litlle list i do cause i need them for me on such large events <.<
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| Robot Event: List of Actions http://asakaze.fallenash.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=902 |
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| Author: | Yasuki Nishida [ Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:46 pm ] | ||
| Post subject: | Robot Event: List of Actions | ||
Here's a litlle list i do cause i need them for me on such large events <.<
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| Author: | Hida Akemi [ Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Robot Event: List of Actions |
For those curious: Chance to succeed a TN8 with Trait 1 Rank 0: 30% Chance to succeed a TN8 with Trait 1 Rank 1: 51% Chance to succeed a TN8 with Trait 2 Rank 0: 79% Chance to succeed a TN8 with Trait 2 Rank 1: 93% Chance to succeed a TN13 (1 Raise) with Trait 1 Rank 1: 15% Chance to succeed a TN13 (1 Raise) with Trait 2 Rank 1: 63% Chance to succeed a TN18 (2 Raises) with Trait 2 Rank 1: 27% Chance to succeed a TN23 (3 Raises) with Trait 2 Rank 1: 14% Chance to succeed a TN28 (4 Raises) with Trait 2 Rank 1: 5% Chance to succeed a TN7 with Trait 1 Rank 0: 40% Chance to succeed a TN7 with Trait 1 Rank 1: 64% Chance to succeed a TN7 with Trait 2 Rank 0: 85% Chance to succeed a TN7 with Trait 2 Rank 1: 96% Chance to succeed a TN12 (1 Raise) with Trait 1 Rank 1: 17% Chance to succeed a TN12 (1 Raise) with Trait 2 Rank 1: 71% Chance to succeed a TN9 with Trait 1 Rank 0: 20% Chance to succeed a TN9 with Trait 1 Rank 1: 36% Chance to succeed a TN9 with Trait 2 Rank 0: 72% Chance to succeed a TN9 with Trait 2 Rank 1: 89% |
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| Author: | Hida Akemi [ Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Robot Event: List of Actions |
Some examples of robot designs (yes I procrastinate by doing maths badly). Caveats: 1. All bots below assume the builder succeeded at all the appropriate building rolls. 2. Probabilities for exploding rolls, or any roll with more than one dice kept really, are determined using https://lynks.se/probability/ 3. When the Error-Correction Module is chosen, calculations are made assuming it's akin to a +3 on the most difficult roll. It's technically even better than that (it can be used to avoid being damaged and skip a -5 penalty for example) but I'm not computing the ideal algorithm for that, there are limits. 4. Rounding errors might happen. 5. My probabilities classes are in the distant past. 6. Orokos does not actually care about probabilities. Gentle Bot Strategy: Calling 4 Raises out of the Etiquette roll Build: Awareness 4, Etiquette 1, Hunting 1, Error-Correction Module Max possible score: 10 Chance of getting damaged (i.e failing a TN9 hunting roll by 5+ out of 2k1): 4/10*4/10=16% Chance to succeed the TN29 Etiquette roll out of 5k4+3: 58% if not damaged, 35% if damaged Chances to score at least 6 points: 0.84*0.58+0.16*0.35=54% Chances to succeed at the Hunting roll: 36% Chances of failing the Hunting roll without being damaged: 48% Chances to succeed at least one other roll if damaged (i.e. chances to succeed one the two rolls before being damaged): 1-(7/10*7/10)=51% Chances to succeed at least one other roll if not damaged: 1-(7/10*7/10*7/10)=66% Chances to score at least 7 points: 0.16*0.35*0.51+0.58*(0.36+0.48*0.66)=42% Sturdy Bot Strategy: Pass everything with no raise Build: All traits but one at 4, Sturdy Engine Max possible score: 6 That one roll with 1k1+1 (TN8): 4/10=40% (assuming it will be the first one) 2k2+1 TN8: 85% 2k2+1 TN9: 79% Chances to succeed the final Etiquette roll: 0.79 Chances of scoring everything else (in a vacuum): 0.4*0.85*0.85*0.79 Chances of scoring everything else but the first roll: 0.6*0.85*0.85*0.79 Chances of scoring everything else but the second or fourth roll: 2*0.4*0.15*0.85*0.79 Chances to break the engine: 3% -> Assuming an autoloss in that case for simplicity's sake Chances to fail that roll but without breaking the engine: 18% So chances of failing that roll but succeeding the three others: 0.4*0.85*0.85*0.18 Chances to score at least 5 points: 0.79*(0.4*0.85*0.85*0.79+0.6*0.85*0.85*0.79+2*0.4*0.15*0.85*0.79+0.4*0.85*0.85*0.18)=56% Chances of scoring exactly 6 points: 0.4*0.85*0.85*0.79*0.79 = 16% Reverse Psychology Bot Strategy: Call one Raise for each and every of the simplest rolls Build: Assign skills and traits to roll 3k2 for every TN8 roll (Repulsor Thrusters gives the last missing skill) Max possible score: 9 Chances to roll 13 out of 3k2: 63% Chances to roll 9 out of 1k1: 20% Chances to roll 18 out of 3k2: 27% Chances to be damaged: 40% Chances to score at least 6 points if undamaged: 0.63*0.63*0.63*0.2+0.63*0.63*0.63*0.8+3*0.63*0.63*0.37*0.2 (chances to score all the 2-points rolls, chances to score them all but the Etiquette, score to chances any other combination adding up to 6) Chances to score at least (and at best) 6 points if damaged: 0.63*0.63*0.27 Chances to score at least 6 points: 0.6*(0.63*0.63*0.63*0.2+0.63*0.63*0.63*0.8+3*0.63*0.63*0.37*0.2)+0.4*0.63*0.63*0.27=25% |
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| Author: | Hida Akemi [ Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Robot Event: List of Actions |
Rocket Bot Based on a idea from Fundai Tetsu Strategy: Calling 5 Raises out of the Piloting roll Build: Agility 5, Repulsor Thrusters Module Max possible score: 11 Chances to score at least 6 points (6k5 for TN33): 54% Chances to score at least 7 points: 0.54*(0.3+0.7*(0.2+0.4*(1-0.8*0.7)) = 30% |
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